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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

16.10%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

16.45%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

17.61%

increased by 1.10%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8144
6.90***
αARCH0.0771
8.38***
βGARCH0.9022
86.51***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0027
4.01***

0.979

Persistence

33d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8144
6.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0771
8.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9022
86.51***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0027
4.01***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days