V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
16.10%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
16.45%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
17.61%
increased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8144 | 6.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.0771 | 8.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9022 | 86.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0027 | 4.01*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8144 | 6.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0771 | 8.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9022 | 86.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0027 | 4.01*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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