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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.98%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

16.36%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

17.63%

increased by 1.38%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8206
6.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0776
8.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9016
85.89***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0028
4.07***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days