Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.98%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
16.36%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
17.63%
increased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8206 | 6.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0776 | 8.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9016 | 85.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0028 | 4.07*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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