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V-Lab

FTSE 100 Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

10.50%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

10.77%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

11.66%

increased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE 100 Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9550
9.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1048
11.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8747
90.52***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0002
-0.34

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days