V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
88.40%
decreased by 6.09%
1 Week
86.38%
decreased by 8.11%
1 Month
80.02%
decreased by 14.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0002 | 5.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0996 | 9.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8553 | 61.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0448 | -1.23 |
| γ2 | 0.1630 | 3.13*** |
| γ3 | -0.2707 | -7.91*** |
| γ4 | 0.2308 | 6.72*** |
| γ5 | -0.1012 | -2.71*** |
| γ6 | 0.0082 | 0.24 |
| γ7 | 0.0800 | 2.44** |
| γ8 | -0.1302 | -3.52*** |
| γ9 | 0.2464 | 4.03*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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