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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

88.40%

decreased by 6.09%

1 Week

86.38%

decreased by 8.11%

1 Month

80.02%

decreased by 14.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0002
5.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0996
9.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8553
61.35***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0448
-1.23
γ20.1630
3.13***
γ3-0.2707
-7.91***
γ40.2308
6.72***
γ5-0.1012
-2.71***
γ60.0082
0.24
γ70.0800
2.44**
γ8-0.1302
-3.52***
γ90.2464
4.03***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days