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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

58.55%

decreased by 2.88%

1 Week

59.23%

decreased by 2.20%

1 Month

60.58%

decreased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0295
10.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8050
146.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1508
29.27***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0026
3.88***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0312
9.45***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9683
277.46***

Persistence:

0.910

Half-life:

7 days