Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
89.88%
increased by 21.61%
1 Week
86.08%
increased by 17.81%
1 Month
76.12%
increased by 7.85%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0304 | 11.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8051 | 145.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1489 | 28.86*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0026 | 3.91*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0307 | 9.19*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9687 | 274.98*** |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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