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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

61.84%

decreased by 3.66%

1 Week

62.21%

decreased by 3.29%

1 Month

62.17%

decreased by 3.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0294
10.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8050
146.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1507
29.27***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0026
3.87***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0313
9.45***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9682
276.47***

Persistence:

0.910

Half-life:

7 days