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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

38.13%

decreased by 0.99%

1 Week

40.05%

increased by 0.93%

1 Month

43.77%

increased by 4.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0310
3.04***
βGARCH0.8080
46.86***
γleverage0.1486
8.49***
λ₁tau intercept0.0025
1.62
λ₂forecast adj.0.0288
4.48***
λ₃tau persistence0.9705
146.16***

0.913

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0310
3.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8080
46.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1486
8.49***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0025
1.62
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0288
4.48***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9705
146.16***

Persistence:

0.913

Half-life:

8 days