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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

89.88%

increased by 21.61%

1 Week

86.08%

increased by 17.81%

1 Month

76.12%

increased by 7.85%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0304
11.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8051
145.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1489
28.86***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0026
3.91***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0307
9.19***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9687
274.98***

Persistence:

0.910

Half-life:

7 days