V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
61.84%
decreased by 3.66%
1 Week
62.21%
decreased by 3.29%
1 Month
62.17%
decreased by 3.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0294 | 10.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8050 | 146.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1507 | 29.27*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0026 | 3.87*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0313 | 9.45*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9682 | 276.47*** |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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