V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
29.06%
decreased by 1.63%
1 Week
29.09%
decreased by 1.60%
1 Month
29.22%
decreased by 1.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0118 | 2.14** |
| αARCH | 0.1003 | 12.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8931 | 121.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.3751 | 5.21*** |
0.993
Persistence105d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0118 | 2.14** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1003 | 12.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8931 | 121.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3751 | 5.21*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
105 days
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