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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

29.06%

decreased by 1.63%

1 Week

29.09%

decreased by 1.60%

1 Month

29.22%

decreased by 1.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0118
2.14**
αARCH0.1003
12.13***
βGARCH0.8931
121.71***
γleverage0.3751
5.21***

0.993

Persistence

105d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0118
2.14**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1003
12.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8931
121.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3751
5.21***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days