Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
50.07%
decreased by 2.86%
1 Week
49.89%
decreased by 3.04%
1 Month
49.18%
decreased by 3.75%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0114 | 2.06** |
| αARCH | 0.1002 | 12.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8936 | 123.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.3768 | 5.23*** |
0.994
Persistence111d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0114 | 2.06** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1002 | 12.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8936 | 123.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3768 | 5.23*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
111 days
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