V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
48.11%
decreased by 2.72%
1 Week
47.95%
decreased by 2.88%
1 Month
47.31%
decreased by 3.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0113 | 2.04** |
| αARCH | 0.0991 | 12.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8947 | 121.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.3750 | 5.17*** |
0.994
Persistence111d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0113 | 2.04** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0991 | 12.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8947 | 121.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3750 | 5.17*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
111 days
Other Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices