V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
74.80%
decreased by 4.21%
1 Week
74.45%
decreased by 4.56%
1 Month
73.06%
decreased by 5.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0109 | 7.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0983 | 48.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8958 | 489.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3747 | 20.62*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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