V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
96.78%
decreased by 5.30%
1 Week
96.29%
decreased by 5.79%
1 Month
94.41%
decreased by 7.67%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0108 | 7.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0987 | 48.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8957 | 489.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3739 | 20.65*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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