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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

48.11%

decreased by 2.72%

1 Week

47.95%

decreased by 2.88%

1 Month

47.31%

decreased by 3.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0113
2.04**
αARCH0.0991
12.03***
βGARCH0.8947
121.71***
γleverage0.3750
5.17***

0.994

Persistence

111d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0113
2.04**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0991
12.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8947
121.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3750
5.17***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

111 days