Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

50.07%

decreased by 2.86%

1 Week

49.89%

decreased by 3.04%

1 Month

49.18%

decreased by 3.75%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0114
2.06**
αARCH0.1002
12.20***
βGARCH0.8936
123.12***
γleverage0.3768
5.23***

0.994

Persistence

111d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0114
2.06**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1002
12.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8936
123.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3768
5.23***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

111 days