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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

96.78%

decreased by 5.30%

1 Week

96.29%

decreased by 5.79%

1 Month

94.41%

decreased by 7.67%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0108
7.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0987
48.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8957
489.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3739
20.65***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

122 days