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V-Lab

S&P/ASX 200 AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

12.62%

increased by 1.15%

1 Week

12.75%

increased by 1.28%

1 Month

13.17%

increased by 1.70%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 01:02 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.54) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0030
0.49
αARCH0.0820
9.81***
βGARCH0.8863
86.63***
γleverage0.5390
7.75***

0.968

Persistence

22d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0030
0.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0820
9.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8863
86.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5390
7.75***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

22 days