V-Lab
Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
14.75%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
15.12%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
16.39%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.50) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0125 | 2.10** |
| αARCH | 0.0936 | 10.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8909 | 97.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.4975 | 7.50*** |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0125 | 2.10** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0936 | 10.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8909 | 97.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4975 | 7.50*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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