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Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

14.75%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

15.12%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

16.39%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.50) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0125
2.10**
αARCH0.0936
10.19***
βGARCH0.8909
97.18***
γleverage0.4975
7.50***

0.984

Persistence

44d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0125
2.10**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0936
10.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8909
97.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4975
7.50***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days