Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.03%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
15.39%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
16.62%
increased by 1.20%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.50) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0126 | 8.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0939 | 40.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8905 | 387.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4994 | 30.04*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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