V-Lab
Russell 1000 Value Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
9.54%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
10.15%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
11.93%
increased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.58) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1076 | 9.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8601 | 69.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5820 | 6.57*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
Other Russell 1000 Value Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices