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V-Lab

Russell 1000 Value Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

8.93%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

9.63%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

11.59%

increased by 2.20%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Value Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.58) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1076
37.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8600
277.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5829
26.27***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days