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V-Lab

Russell 1000 Value Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

9.54%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

10.15%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

11.93%

increased by 1.70%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Value Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.58) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1076
9.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8601
69.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5820
6.57***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days