V-Lab
Russell 1000 Value Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
8.93%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
9.63%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
11.59%
increased by 2.20%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.58) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1076 | 37.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8600 | 277.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5829 | 26.27*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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