Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.11%
increased by 0.70%
1 Week
12.31%
increased by 0.90%
1 Month
13.02%
increased by 1.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2958 | 7.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1005 | 35.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9861 | 462.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6956 | 6.42*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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