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Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

10.40%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

10.68%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

11.65%

increased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2847
7.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1007
35.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9860
465.97***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.7527
6.39***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days