V-Lab
Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
10.40%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
10.68%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
11.65%
increased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2847 | 7.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1007 | 35.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9860 | 465.97*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7527 | 6.39*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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