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Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.11%

increased by 0.70%

1 Week

12.31%

increased by 0.90%

1 Month

13.02%

increased by 1.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2958
7.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1005
35.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9861
462.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6956
6.42***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days