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Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

12.94%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

13.10%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Month

13.69%

decreased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2909
7.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1007
35.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9861
464.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.7303
6.40***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days