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Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

9.36%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

9.70%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

10.84%

increased by 0.98%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifev = 7.82 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2743
1.87*
αARCH0.1006
9.06***
βGARCH0.9861
119.20***
νDF7.8243
1.60

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2743
1.87*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1006
9.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9861
119.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.8243
1.60

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days