V-Lab
Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
12.94%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
13.10%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Month
13.69%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2909 | 7.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1007 | 35.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9861 | 464.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7303 | 6.40*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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