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Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

16.31%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Week

16.37%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Month

16.57%

decreased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 01:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Value Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 7.98 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.3179
1.84*
αscore0.1032
9.18***
βpersistence0.9862
118.06***
νDF7.9793
1.58

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.3179
1.84*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1032
9.18***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9862
118.06***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9793
1.58

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days