V-Lab
Russell 1000 Value Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
10.41%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
10.75%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
11.87%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0238 | 5.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1141 | 8.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8647 | 64.92*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0238 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1141 | 8.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8647 | 64.92*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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