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V-Lab

Russell 1000 Value Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

11.09%

increased by 1.22%

1 Week

11.40%

increased by 1.53%

1 Month

12.47%

increased by 2.60%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Russell 1000 Value Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. The volatility power δ = 1.19 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0252
8.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0750
1.30
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9089
99.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
0.81
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1852
10.34***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days