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V-Lab

Russell 1000 Value Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 17th, 2026

1 Day

13.75%

increased by 1.53%

1 Week

13.93%

increased by 1.71%

1 Month

14.57%

increased by 2.35%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 03:45 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Value Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. The volatility power δ = 1.19 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-lifeδ = 1.19 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0252
8.13***
αARCH0.0749
1.29
βGARCH0.9089
99.40***
γleverage1.0000
0.80
δpower1.1861
10.35***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0252
8.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0749
1.29
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9089
99.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
0.80
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1861
10.35***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days