V-Lab
Russell 1000 Value Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.09%
increased by 1.22%
1 Week
11.40%
increased by 1.53%
1 Month
12.47%
increased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. The volatility power δ = 1.19 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0252 | 8.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0750 | 1.30 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9089 | 99.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.81 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1852 | 10.34*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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