V-Lab
Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.19%
1 Week
14.44%
1 Month
15.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 56% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 2.58 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0263 | 4.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0556 | 3.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9161 | 106.50*** |
| γleverage | 0.0864 | 2.13** |
| δpower | 2.5770 | 5.28*** |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0263 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0556 | 3.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9161 | 106.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0864 | 2.13** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.5770 | 5.28*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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