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V-Lab

Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.19%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

14.44%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

15.31%

increased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 56% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 2.58 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 56% more than positive returnsδ = 2.58 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0263
4.24***
αARCH0.0556
3.06***
βGARCH0.9161
106.50***
γleverage0.0864
2.13**
δpower2.5770
5.28***

0.988

Persistence

59d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0263
4.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0556
3.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9161
106.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0864
2.13**
δ

power

Transformation power

2.5770
5.28***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

59 days