Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
16.59%
1 Week
16.74%
1 Month
17.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 56% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 2.58 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0264 | 4.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0556 | 3.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9162 | 106.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.0867 | 2.14** |
| δpower | 2.5755 | 5.28*** |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0264 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0556 | 3.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9162 | 106.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0867 | 2.14** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.5755 | 5.28*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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