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Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

16.59%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

16.74%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

17.28%

increased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Total Return Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 56% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 2.58 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 56% more than positive returnsδ = 2.58 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0264
4.25***
αARCH0.0556
3.07***
βGARCH0.9162
106.63***
γleverage0.0867
2.14**
δpower2.5755
5.28***

0.988

Persistence

59d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0264
4.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0556
3.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9162
106.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0867
2.14**
δ

power

Transformation power

2.5755
5.28***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

59 days