Skip to main content
V-Lab

FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

10.98%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

11.54%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

13.53%

increased by 2.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 356% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.15 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0320
31.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0926
31.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9039
396.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5796
20.78***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1464
37.24***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days