V-Lab
FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
10.98%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
11.54%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
13.53%
increased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 356% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.15 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0320 | 31.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0926 | 31.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9039 | 396.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5796 | 20.78*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1464 | 37.24*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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