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FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

22.17%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

22.27%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

22.63%

increased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 362% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 362% more than positive returnsδ = 1.14 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0318
8.02***
αARCH0.0918
7.84***
βGARCH0.9047
100.27***
γleverage0.5860
5.24***
δpower1.1399
9.41***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0318
8.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0918
7.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9047
100.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5860
5.24***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1399
9.41***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days