V-Lab
FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
17.35%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
17.57%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
18.32%
increased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0332 | 5.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.0303 | 2.28** |
| βGARCH | 0.8907 | 103.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.1275 | 5.22*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0332 | 5.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0303 | 2.28** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8907 | 103.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1275 | 5.22*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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