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V-Lab

FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

12.23%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

12.72%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

14.35%

increased by 1.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0335
23.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0309
9.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8898
407.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1283
20.68***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days