V-Lab
FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
14.88%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
15.21%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
16.34%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0333 | 5.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.0304 | 2.28** |
| βGARCH | 0.8904 | 102.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.1280 | 5.23*** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0333 | 5.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0304 | 2.28** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8904 | 102.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1280 | 5.23*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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