V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.00%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
16.24%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
17.10%
increased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 04:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 395% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 395% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0302 | 5.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0313 | 2.37** |
| βGARCH | 0.8928 | 102.87*** |
| γleverage | 0.1235 | 5.10*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0302 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0313 | 2.37** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8928 | 102.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1235 | 5.10*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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