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FTSE MIB Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

16.00%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

16.24%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

17.10%

increased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 04:09 PM UTC

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graph of FTSE MIB Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 395% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 395% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0302
5.63***
αARCH0.0313
2.37**
βGARCH0.8928
102.87***
γleverage0.1235
5.10***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0302
5.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0313
2.37**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8928
102.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1235
5.10***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days