FTSE MIB Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
18.43%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
18.58%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
19.10%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 395% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 395% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0301 | 5.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0311 | 2.36** |
| βGARCH | 0.8933 | 103.16*** |
| γleverage | 0.1229 | 5.10*** |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0301 | 5.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0311 | 2.36** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8933 | 103.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1229 | 5.10*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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