Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
55.48%
decreased by 3.00%
1 Week
55.35%
decreased by 3.13%
1 Month
54.84%
decreased by 3.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 121% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~173 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 121% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0200 | 5.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0609 | 5.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8983 | 130.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.0737 | 3.65*** |
0.996
Persistence173d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0200 | 5.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0609 | 5.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8983 | 130.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0737 | 3.65*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
173 days
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