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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

43.13%

decreased by 1.99%

1 Week

43.07%

decreased by 2.05%

1 Month

42.85%

decreased by 2.27%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 172 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~172 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0197
5.24***
αARCH0.0605
5.79***
βGARCH0.8991
129.11***
γleverage0.0727
3.61***

0.996

Persistence

172d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0197
5.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0605
5.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8991
129.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0727
3.61***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

172 days