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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

87.13%

increased by 4.46%

1 Week

86.87%

increased by 4.20%

1 Month

85.85%

increased by 3.18%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 190 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 119% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0191
20.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0601
23.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9007
519.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0712
14.31***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

190 days