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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

30.09%

decreased by 1.52%

1 Week

30.13%

decreased by 1.48%

1 Month

30.29%

decreased by 1.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 162 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~162 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0203
5.34***
αARCH0.0613
5.82***
βGARCH0.8978
128.98***
γleverage0.0733
3.61***

0.996

Persistence

162d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0203
5.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0613
5.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8978
128.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0733
3.61***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

162 days