V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
30.09%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Week
30.13%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Month
30.29%
decreased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 162 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~162 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0203 | 5.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.0613 | 5.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8978 | 128.98*** |
| γleverage | 0.0733 | 3.61*** |
0.996
Persistence162d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0203 | 5.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0613 | 5.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8978 | 128.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0733 | 3.61*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
162 days
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