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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

55.48%

decreased by 3.00%

1 Week

55.35%

decreased by 3.13%

1 Month

54.84%

decreased by 3.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 121% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~173 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 121% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0200
5.30***
αARCH0.0609
5.81***
βGARCH0.8983
130.45***
γleverage0.0737
3.65***

0.996

Persistence

173d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0200
5.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0609
5.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8983
130.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0737
3.65***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

173 days