V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
99.84%
decreased by 4.24%
1 Week
99.54%
decreased by 4.54%
1 Month
98.39%
decreased by 5.69%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 202 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0190 | 20.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0600 | 23.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9006 | 520.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0719 | 14.42*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
202 days
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