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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

99.84%

decreased by 4.24%

1 Week

99.54%

decreased by 4.54%

1 Month

98.39%

decreased by 5.69%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 202 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 120% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0190
20.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0600
23.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9006
520.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0719
14.42***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

202 days