V-Lab
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
74.96%
decreased by 10.59%
1 Week
74.64%
decreased by 10.91%
1 Month
73.43%
decreased by 12.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0398 | 9.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2794 | 64.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7146 | 217.75*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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