Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
51.53%
decreased by 5.69%
1 Week
51.41%
decreased by 5.81%
1 Month
50.93%
decreased by 6.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0402 | 2.45** |
| αARCH | 0.2799 | 16.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7138 | 54.32*** |
0.994
Persistence111d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0402 | 2.45** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2799 | 16.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7138 | 54.32*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
111 days
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