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V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026

1 Day

51.53%

decreased by 5.69%

1 Week

51.41%

decreased by 5.81%

1 Month

50.93%

decreased by 6.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/27/2024

to

10/27/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0402
2.45**
αARCH0.2799
16.55***
βGARCH0.7138
54.32***

0.994

Persistence

111d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0402
2.45**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2799
16.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7138
54.32***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

111 days