AEX-Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
10.28%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
10.83%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
12.56%
increased by 1.89%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 4, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0314 | 2.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.2335 | 14.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7470 | 64.86*** |
0.981
Persistence35d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0314 | 2.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2335 | 14.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7470 | 64.86*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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