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V-Lab

S&P BSE SENSEX Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

18.89%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Week

19.18%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Month

20.26%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P BSE SENSEX Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 281 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~281 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0250
2.80***
αARCH0.2119
15.08***
βGARCH0.7856
69.70***

0.998

Persistence

281d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0250
2.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2119
15.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7856
69.70***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

281 days