S&P BSE SENSEX Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
18.89%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
19.18%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
20.26%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 281 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~281 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0250 | 2.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.2119 | 15.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7856 | 69.70*** |
0.998
Persistence281d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0250 | 2.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2119 | 15.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7856 | 69.70*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
281 days
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