S&P BSE SENSEX Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
14.57%
increased by 0.64%
1 Week
14.80%
increased by 0.87%
1 Month
15.73%
increased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 43% more than positive returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0144 | 15.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1648 | 22.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9928 | 1,313.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0291 | -6.84*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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