Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
13.18%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
13.37%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
14.03%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jan 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0042 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1584 | 39.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9721 | 877.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1222 | -33.99*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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