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V-Lab

Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

12.34%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

12.82%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

14.08%

increased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 08:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jan 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8353
222.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2026
46.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0093
5.97***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0628
4.83***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9278
64.16***

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days