Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.34%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
12.82%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
14.08%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 08:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jan 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8353 | 222.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2026 | 46.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0093 | 5.97*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0628 | 4.83*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9278 | 64.16*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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