Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.45%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
12.64%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
13.30%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jan 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0221 | 21.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0090 | 3.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8903 | 429.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1616 | 29.32*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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