Dow Jones Utilities Average GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
14.59%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
14.64%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
14.85%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 125% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0175 | 6.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.0472 | 4.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9066 | 119.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.0592 | 2.80*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0175 | 6.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0472 | 4.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9066 | 119.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0592 | 2.80*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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