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V-Lab

Dow Jones Utilities Average APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

14.85%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

14.92%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Month

15.19%

decreased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Utilities Average APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 114% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.54 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0188
30.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0841
41.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9083
442.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2433
16.19***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5361
35.39***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days