V-Lab
Dow Jones Utilities Average APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.85%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
14.92%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
15.19%
decreased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 114% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.54 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0188 | 30.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0841 | 41.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9083 | 442.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2433 | 16.19*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5361 | 35.39*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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