V-Lab
Dow Jones Utilities Average Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.72%
increased by 0.80%
1 Week
15.94%
increased by 1.02%
1 Month
16.72%
increased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7849 | 8.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0874 | 10.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8944 | 103.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.42 |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7849 | 8.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0874 | 10.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8944 | 103.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.42 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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