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Dow Jones Utilities Average Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

15.68%

increased by 1.02%

1 Week

15.91%

increased by 1.25%

1 Month

16.70%

increased by 2.04%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Utilities Average SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7847
8.83***
αARCH0.0869
10.43***
βGARCH0.8949
103.57***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
0.44

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7847
8.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0869
10.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8949
103.57***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
0.44

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days