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Dow Jones Utilities Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

17.84%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

17.82%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

17.76%

decreased by 0.68%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Utilities Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 9.72 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.1619
2.59***
αscore0.0793
8.95***
βpersistence0.9875
201.49***
νDF9.7175
1.19

0.987

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.1619
2.59***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0793
8.95***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9875
201.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.7175
1.19

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days