V-Lab
Dow Jones Utilities Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
14.27%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
14.34%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
14.62%
decreased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-lifev = 9.47 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1585 | 2.48** |
| αARCH | 0.0788 | 8.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9877 | 195.59*** |
| νDF | 9.4685 | 1.23 |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1585 | 2.48** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0788 | 8.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9877 | 195.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4685 | 1.23 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices