V-Lab
Dow Jones Utilities Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
14.02%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
14.10%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
14.40%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-lifev = 9.51 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1569 | 2.50** |
| αARCH | 0.0787 | 9.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9877 | 196.95*** |
| νDF | 9.5085 | 1.22 |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1569 | 2.50** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0787 | 9.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9877 | 196.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.5085 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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