V-Lab
Dow Jones Utilities Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
15.46%
increased by 0.89%
1 Week
15.50%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
15.65%
increased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1597 | 9.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0788 | 35.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9877 | 777.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4459 | 4.91*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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