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Dow Jones Utilities Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.39%

increased by 1.03%

1 Week

15.44%

increased by 1.08%

1 Month

15.60%

increased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Utilities Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-lifev = 9.50 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1596
2.49**
αARCH0.0788
9.00***
βGARCH0.9877
196.60***
νDF9.4999
1.22

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1596
2.49**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0788
9.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9877
196.60***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.4999
1.22

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days