Dow Jones Utilities Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
17.84%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
17.82%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
17.76%
decreased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 9.72 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.1619 | 2.59*** |
| αscore | 0.0793 | 8.95*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9875 | 201.49*** |
| νDF | 9.7175 | 1.19 |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.1619 | 2.59*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0793 | 8.95*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9875 | 201.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.7175 | 1.19 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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