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V-Lab

Dow Jones Utilities Average AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

13.29%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

13.44%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

13.95%

increased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Utilities Average AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.21) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0156
23.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0849
44.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8987
446.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2098
15.97***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days