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Dow Jones Utilities Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

16.14%

increased by 1.70%

1 Week

16.08%

increased by 1.64%

1 Month

15.85%

increased by 1.41%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Utilities Average MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 198% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 198% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0507
4.12***
βGARCH0.7797
36.36***
γleverage0.1003
5.64***
λ₁tau intercept0.0079
2.85***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0501
4.85***
λ₃tau persistence0.9423
77.91***

0.881

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0507
4.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7797
36.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1003
5.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0079
2.85***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0501
4.85***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9423
77.91***

Persistence:

0.881

Half-life:

5 days