V-Lab
Dow Jones Utilities Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
16.14%
increased by 1.70%
1 Week
16.08%
increased by 1.64%
1 Month
15.85%
increased by 1.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 198% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 198% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0507 | 4.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7797 | 36.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.1003 | 5.64*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0079 | 2.85*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0501 | 4.85*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9423 | 77.91*** |
0.881
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0507 | 4.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7797 | 36.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1003 | 5.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0079 | 2.85*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0501 | 4.85*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9423 | 77.91*** |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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