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Dow Jones Utilities Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

13.97%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

14.34%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

15.25%

increased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Utilities Average MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 200% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 200% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0499
4.08***
βGARCH0.7814
36.55***
γleverage0.1001
5.66***
λ₁tau intercept0.0078
2.85***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0497
4.86***
λ₃tau persistence0.9428
78.89***

0.881

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0499
4.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7814
36.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1001
5.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0078
2.85***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0497
4.86***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9428
78.89***

Persistence:

0.881

Half-life:

5 days