V-Lab
Dow Jones Utilities Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
19.36%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
18.79%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Month
17.59%
decreased by 2.72%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 199% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0508 | 15.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7796 | 84.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1008 | 20.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0078 | 5.24*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0500 | 5.21*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9425 | 88.35*** |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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