V-Lab
Dow Jones Utilities Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
16.23%
increased by 1.79%
1 Week
16.38%
increased by 1.94%
1 Month
16.69%
increased by 2.25%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 12:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 199% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0509 | 15.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7796 | 84.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1011 | 20.29*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0079 | 5.27*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0503 | 5.22*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9422 | 88.05*** |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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