V-Lab
Swiss Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
10.88%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
11.42%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
12.57%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0104 | 0.55 |
| βGARCH | 0.7947 | 45.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.2280 | 12.19*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0057 | 1.03 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0200 | 1.66* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9745 | 56.43*** |
0.919
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0104 | 0.55 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7947 | 45.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2280 | 12.19*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0057 | 1.03 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0200 | 1.66* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9745 | 56.43*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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