V-Lab
Swiss Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
12.04%
increased by 1.02%
1 Week
12.53%
increased by 1.51%
1 Month
13.68%
increased by 2.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0099 | 1.98** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7935 | 182.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2297 | 35.00*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0059 | 2.45** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0204 | 3.27*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9739 | 111.66*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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