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V-Lab

Swiss Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

12.04%

increased by 1.02%

1 Week

12.53%

increased by 1.51%

1 Month

13.68%

increased by 2.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Swiss Market Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0099
1.98**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7935
182.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2297
35.00***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0059
2.45**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0204
3.27***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9739
111.66***

Persistence:

0.918

Half-life:

8 days