V-Lab
Swiss Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
11.27%
increased by 0.58%
1 Week
11.66%
increased by 0.97%
1 Month
12.58%
increased by 1.89%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0103 | 0.55 |
| βGARCH | 0.7937 | 45.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.2285 | 12.24*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0058 | 1.03 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0203 | 1.66* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9741 | 55.55*** |
0.918
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0103 | 0.55 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7937 | 45.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2285 | 12.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0058 | 1.03 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0203 | 1.66* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9741 | 55.55*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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