Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
13.89%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
14.13%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
14.81%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8496 | 60.33*** |
| γleverage | 0.1647 | 10.39*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0081 | 1.27 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0273 | 1.68* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9674 | 47.15*** |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8496 | 60.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1647 | 10.39*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0081 | 1.27 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0273 | 1.68* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9674 | 47.15*** |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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