V-Lab
Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
13.88%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
14.52%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
16.11%
increased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8488 | 197.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1654 | 35.71*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0082 | 2.47** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0275 | 2.36** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9672 | 68.25*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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