V-Lab
Deutsche Boerse AG German Stock Index DAX MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.16%
increased by 1.04%
1 Week
15.20%
increased by 1.08%
1 Month
15.44%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8498 | 60.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.1648 | 10.42*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0081 | 1.27 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0272 | 1.68* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9675 | 47.41*** |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8498 | 60.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1648 | 10.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0081 | 1.27 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0272 | 1.68* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9675 | 47.41*** |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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