V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
14.12%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
14.04%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Month
14.09%
decreased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8085 | 54.28*** |
| γleverage | 0.1916 | 8.19*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0154 | 2.22** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0937 | 3.81*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8989 | 34.49*** |
0.904
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8085 | 54.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1916 | 8.19*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0154 | 2.22** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0937 | 3.81*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8989 | 34.49*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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