V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.00%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
12.72%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
14.09%
increased by 2.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8080 | 131.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1926 | 23.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0158 | 3.70*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0963 | 3.94*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8962 | 35.18*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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