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V-Lab

FTSE MIB Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

24.50%

increased by 0.31%

1 Week

23.64%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

21.51%

decreased by 2.68%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE MIB Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8098
54.75***
γleverage0.1910
8.23***
λ₁tau intercept0.0150
2.23**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0901
3.84***
λ₃tau persistence0.9027
36.24***

0.905

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8098
54.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1910
8.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0150
2.23**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0901
3.84***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9027
36.24***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days