V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
24.50%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
23.64%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Month
21.51%
decreased by 2.68%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8098 | 54.75*** |
| γleverage | 0.1910 | 8.23*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0150 | 2.23** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0901 | 3.84*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9027 | 36.24*** |
0.905
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8098 | 54.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1910 | 8.23*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0150 | 2.23** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0901 | 3.84*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9027 | 36.24*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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