V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.91%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Week
22.30%
decreased by 2.18%
1 Month
21.26%
decreased by 3.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8093 | 134.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1920 | 23.30*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0151 | 3.78*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0918 | 4.09*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9011 | 38.58*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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