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V-Lab

S&P 100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

13.02%

increased by 2.32%

1 Week

13.25%

increased by 2.55%

1 Month

13.73%

increased by 3.03%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 100 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8393
64.05***
γleverage0.1929
10.98***
λ₁tau intercept0.0110
1.54
λ₂forecast adj.0.0684
1.86*
λ₃tau persistence0.9211
21.63***

0.936

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8393
64.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1929
10.98***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0110
1.54
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0684
1.86*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9211
21.63***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

10 days