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V-Lab

S&P 100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

11.28%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

11.81%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

13.26%

increased by 1.66%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC

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graph of S&P 100 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8391
63.92***
γleverage0.1930
10.99***
λ₁tau intercept0.0110
1.55
λ₂forecast adj.0.0684
1.86*
λ₃tau persistence0.9211
21.66***

0.936

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8391
63.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1930
10.99***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0110
1.55
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0684
1.86*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9211
21.66***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

10 days