V-Lab
S&P 100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
11.28%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
11.81%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
13.26%
increased by 1.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8391 | 63.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.1930 | 10.99*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0110 | 1.55 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0684 | 1.86* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9211 | 21.66*** |
0.936
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8391 | 63.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1930 | 10.99*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0110 | 1.55 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0684 | 1.86* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9211 | 21.66*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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