V-Lab
S&P 100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.81%
increased by 0.35%
1 Week
12.24%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
13.35%
increased by 1.89%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8389 | 63.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.1932 | 11.00*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0111 | 1.54 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0691 | 1.85* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9204 | 21.38*** |
0.935
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8389 | 63.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1932 | 11.00*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0111 | 1.54 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0691 | 1.85* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9204 | 21.38*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices