V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, August 15th, 2026
1 Day
10.50%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
11.39%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
14.02%
increased by 3.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 179% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0987 | 22.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7907 | 200.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1767 | 25.36*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0058 | 4.67*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0069 | 4.90*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9910 | 503.02*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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