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V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, August 15th, 2026

1 Day

10.50%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

11.39%

increased by 0.41%

1 Month

14.02%

increased by 3.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 05:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 179% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0987
22.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7907
200.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1767
25.36***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0058
4.67***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0069
4.90***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9910
503.02***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days