V-Lab
Tadawul All Share TASI Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Saturday, July 25th, 2026
1 Day
9.68%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
10.69%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
13.59%
increased by 3.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 177% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0990 | 22.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7915 | 201.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1750 | 25.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0058 | 4.67*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0069 | 4.90*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9910 | 506.40*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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