Tadawul All Share TASI Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
9.46%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
10.51%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
13.49%
increased by 3.73%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 177% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0988 | 22.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7914 | 201.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1753 | 25.19*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0058 | 4.66*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0069 | 4.88*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9910 | 503.81*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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