FT Wilshire 5000 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.22%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
12.67%
increased by 0.59%
1 Month
13.88%
increased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:38 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8353 | 61.99*** |
| γleverage | 0.2016 | 12.71*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0094 | 1.81* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0627 | 2.31** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9280 | 29.80*** |
0.936
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8353 | 61.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2016 | 12.71*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0094 | 1.81* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0627 | 2.31** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9280 | 29.80*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
Other FT Wilshire 5000 Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices