V-Lab
FT Wilshire 5000 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.22%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
12.67%
increased by 0.59%
1 Month
13.88%
increased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8353 | 61.99*** |
| γleverage | 0.2016 | 12.71*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0094 | 1.81* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0627 | 2.31** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9280 | 29.80*** |
0.936
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8353 | 61.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2016 | 12.71*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0094 | 1.81* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0627 | 2.31** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9280 | 29.80*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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