V-Lab
FT Wilshire 5000 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.20%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
12.66%
increased by 0.59%
1 Month
13.87%
increased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jan 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8353 | 222.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2026 | 46.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0093 | 5.97*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0628 | 4.83*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9278 | 64.16*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
Other FT Wilshire 5000 Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices