V-Lab
FT Wilshire 5000 Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.23%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
12.68%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
14.02%
increased by 1.61%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jan 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2433 | 7.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1066 | 10.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8595 | 69.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0891 | 6.28*** |
| γ2 | -0.1399 | -6.14*** |
| γ3 | 0.0806 | 5.06*** |
| γ4 | -0.0598 | -4.18*** |
| γ5 | 0.0668 | 3.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.0760 | -2.51** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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