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V-Lab

FT Wilshire 5000 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.47%

increased by 0.51%

1 Week

12.75%

increased by 0.79%

1 Month

13.75%

increased by 1.79%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FT Wilshire 5000 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jan 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.07 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0281
36.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0887
33.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9030
408.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.8056
22.07***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0717
41.76***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days