V-Lab
FT Wilshire 5000 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.47%
increased by 0.51%
1 Week
12.75%
increased by 0.79%
1 Month
13.75%
increased by 1.79%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jan 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.07 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0281 | 36.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0887 | 33.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9030 | 408.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8056 | 22.07*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0717 | 41.76*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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