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V-Lab

Jakarta Stock Exchange LQ45 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

19.16%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

19.57%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

21.04%

increased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Jakarta Stock Exchange LQ45 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 24, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 101% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.53 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0407
22.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1196
38.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8804
332.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2242
14.69***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5316
36.44***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days