V-Lab
Jakarta Stock Exchange LQ45 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.16%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
19.57%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
21.04%
increased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 24, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 101% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.53 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0407 | 22.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1196 | 38.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8804 | 332.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2242 | 14.69*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5316 | 36.44*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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