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V-Lab

Jakarta Stock Exchange LQ45 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

19.88%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Week

20.13%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Month

21.04%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Jakarta Stock Exchange LQ45 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 24, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.4376
5.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0992
41.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9892
594.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0955
9.29***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days