V-Lab
Jakarta Stock Exchange LQ45 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.89%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
21.23%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
23.81%
increased by 3.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 24, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 225% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0729 | 19.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7493 | 115.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1637 | 24.53*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0063 | 6.78*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0234 | 7.95*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9739 | 288.22*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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