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V-Lab

MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

18.13%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

18.71%

increased by 0.44%

1 Month

19.70%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:52 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0185
1.98**
βGARCH0.7839
46.59***
γleverage0.1720
8.82***
λ₁tau intercept0.0075
2.92***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0453
5.15***
λ₃tau persistence0.9488
94.19***

0.888

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0185
1.98**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7839
46.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1720
8.82***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0075
2.92***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0453
5.15***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9488
94.19***

Persistence:

0.888

Half-life:

6 days