V-Lab
MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
18.13%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
18.71%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
19.70%
increased by 1.43%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:52 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0185 | 1.98** |
| βGARCH | 0.7839 | 46.59*** |
| γleverage | 0.1720 | 8.82*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0075 | 2.92*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0453 | 5.15*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9488 | 94.19*** |
0.888
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0185 | 1.98** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7839 | 46.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1720 | 8.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0075 | 2.92*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0453 | 5.15*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9488 | 94.19*** |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
Other MSCI Asia Pacific Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices