V-Lab
MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.94%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
16.42%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
17.14%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0185 | 1.98** |
| βGARCH | 0.7835 | 46.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.1720 | 8.82*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0077 | 2.95*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0459 | 5.13*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9480 | 92.48*** |
0.888
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0185 | 1.98** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7835 | 46.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1720 | 8.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0077 | 2.95*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0459 | 5.13*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9480 | 92.48*** |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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