MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
22.83%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
22.98%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Month
23.09%
decreased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Mar 19, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0194 | 7.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7790 | 132.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1720 | 32.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0077 | 5.35*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0466 | 6.71*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9472 | 122.99*** |
Persistence:
0.884
Half-life:
6 days
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