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MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

18.89%

increased by 3.38%

1 Week

18.61%

increased by 3.10%

1 Month

18.27%

increased by 2.76%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:32 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0185
1.98**
βGARCH0.7833
46.37***
γleverage0.1721
8.82***
λ₁tau intercept0.0078
2.97***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0462
5.14***
λ₃tau persistence0.9476
92.03***

0.888

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0185
1.98**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7833
46.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1721
8.82***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0078
2.97***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0462
5.14***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9476
92.03***

Persistence:

0.888

Half-life:

6 days