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V-Lab

MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

17.17%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

17.40%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Month

17.82%

decreased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0186
2.00**
βGARCH0.7851
47.01***
γleverage0.1713
8.83***
λ₁tau intercept0.0075
2.93***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0448
5.12***
λ₃tau persistence0.9492
94.58***

0.889

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0186
2.00**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7851
47.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1713
8.83***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0075
2.93***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0448
5.12***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9492
94.58***

Persistence:

0.889

Half-life:

6 days