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V-Lab

MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

15.94%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

16.42%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

17.14%

increased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0185
1.98**
βGARCH0.7835
46.45***
γleverage0.1720
8.82***
λ₁tau intercept0.0077
2.95***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0459
5.13***
λ₃tau persistence0.9480
92.48***

0.888

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0185
1.98**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7835
46.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1720
8.82***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0077
2.95***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0459
5.13***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9480
92.48***

Persistence:

0.888

Half-life:

6 days