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V-Lab

MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

22.83%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Week

22.98%

decreased by 1.25%

1 Month

23.09%

decreased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of MSCI Asia Pacific MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Mar 19, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0194
7.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7790
132.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1720
32.40***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0077
5.35***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0466
6.71***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9472
122.99***

Persistence:

0.884

Half-life:

6 days