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V-Lab

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

21.98%

increased by 1.02%

1 Week

21.74%

increased by 0.78%

1 Month

21.58%

increased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 65% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0946
21.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7637
98.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0616
10.97***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1316
0.87
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4639
0.86
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5000
0.85

Persistence:

0.889

Half-life:

6 days