V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.42%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
15.33%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
17.47%
increased by 2.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 59% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1065 | 23.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7638 | 98.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0631 | 9.32*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0209 | 3.68*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0751 | 3.95*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9190 | 42.88*** |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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