V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
21.98%
increased by 1.02%
1 Week
21.74%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
21.58%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 65% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0946 | 21.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7637 | 98.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0616 | 10.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1316 | 0.87 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4639 | 0.86 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5000 | 0.85 |
Persistence:
0.889
Half-life:
6 days
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