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Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.27%

decreased by 1.15%

1 Week

16.51%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Month

17.16%

decreased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 58% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.1061
4.78***
βGARCH0.7662
36.84***
γleverage0.0619
2.08**
λ₁tau intercept0.0199
1.81*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0724
3.68***
λ₃tau persistence0.9219
42.31***

0.903

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1061
4.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7662
36.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0619
2.08**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0199
1.81*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0724
3.68***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9219
42.31***

Persistence:

0.903

Half-life:

7 days