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Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

14.45%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

14.73%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

15.87%

increased by 1.49%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 08:59 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 21, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~96 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0177
4.43***
αARCH0.1502
4.70***
βGARCH0.9928
372.81***
γleverage-0.0159
-1.02

0.993

Persistence

96d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0177
4.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1502
4.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9928
372.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0159
-1.02

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

96 days