Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
14.45%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
14.73%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
15.87%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 08:59 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~96 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0177 | 4.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.1502 | 4.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9928 | 372.81*** |
| γleverage | -0.0159 | -1.02 |
0.993
Persistence96d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0177 | 4.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1502 | 4.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9928 | 372.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0159 | -1.02 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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