V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.83%
increased by 0.89%
1 Week
15.11%
increased by 1.17%
1 Month
16.27%
increased by 2.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 21, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~95 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0178 | 4.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1502 | 4.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9928 | 372.80*** |
| γleverage | -0.0160 | -1.03 |
0.993
Persistence95d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0178 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1502 | 4.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9928 | 372.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0160 | -1.03 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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