MSCI World EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.32%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
12.40%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
12.69%
increased by 0.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 308% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0049 | -3.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1577 | 45.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9768 | 937.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0957 | -29.29*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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