V-Lab
MSCI World MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
13.13%
increased by 0.97%
1 Week
13.26%
increased by 1.10%
1 Month
13.58%
increased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0012 | 0.64 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8316 | 240.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1853 | 49.72*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0142 | 4.41*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1612 | 6.21*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8186 | 27.44*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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