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V-Lab

MSCI World MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

10.19%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

10.67%

increased by 0.27%

1 Month

11.98%

increased by 1.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI World MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0012
0.64
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8316
240.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1853
49.72***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0142
4.41***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1612
6.21***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8186
27.44***

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days