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V-Lab
V-Lab

MSCI World AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

11.90%

increased by 1.93%

1 Week

12.03%

increased by 2.06%

1 Month

12.48%

increased by 2.51%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI World AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.44) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0033
0.71
αARCH0.0980
11.40***
βGARCH0.8751
93.91***
γleverage0.4353
7.19***

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0033
0.71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0980
11.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8751
93.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4353
7.19***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days