FTSE MIB Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
14.36%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
14.87%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
16.53%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.68) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1003 | 35.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8792 | 341.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6843 | 23.73*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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