V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
13.92%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
14.46%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
16.19%
increased by 2.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.68) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0999 | 8.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8797 | 86.00*** |
| γleverage | 0.6823 | 5.96*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0999 | 8.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8797 | 86.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6823 | 5.96*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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