Nikkei 225 AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
35.66%
decreased by 2.64%
1 Week
34.98%
decreased by 3.32%
1 Month
32.73%
decreased by 5.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.74) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0210 | 5.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1081 | 44.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8566 | 335.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7382 | 26.19*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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