Nikkei 225 Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.82%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
24.75%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Month
24.49%
decreased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 115% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0652 | 9.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.1242 | 8.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7743 | 69.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.1434 | 5.04*** |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0652 | 9.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1242 | 8.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7743 | 69.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1434 | 5.04*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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