Nikkei 225 Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
49.47%
decreased by 3.65%
1 Week
48.37%
decreased by 4.75%
1 Month
44.54%
decreased by 8.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 115% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0648 | 37.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1246 | 34.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7743 | 276.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1436 | 20.08*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on Equity Indices