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Dow Jones Composite Average Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

10.71%

increased by 0.13%

1 Week

11.05%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

12.16%

increased by 1.58%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Composite Average AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 39% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 39% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0250
8.33***
αARCH0.2534
9.50***
βGARCH0.6756
42.92***
γleverage0.0983
2.30**

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0250
8.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2534
9.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6756
42.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0983
2.30**

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days